A Development Riddle


The word is out that a new development is slated for that corner on Main Street at the highway... it just sold for nearly double what it was assessed for! What happened? 

Sure it has three drive cuts and two feet of elevation from the roadway... but double?  

Your comps are really pretty good in an active market, so it’s not like the buyer didn’t have relevant market information. There must be something we don’t know about this sale. Was the price overzealously bid up at auction? Maybe sort of. 

It could be a case of a buyer who is aggressively expanding in a region to gain market share from potential competitors. Drugstore wars are a classic example, but the desire to stave off competition by quickly blanketing regional markets is also held by other participants such as bank branches, new fast-casual restaurant concepts, and fitness centers.

Despite what the pesky county council member (or aspiring competitor for your job) says, you can’t simply assume every good site is THE one that the next hot growth retailer will want.

That is why these sales are called outliers. It’s not really such a vexing riddle or mystery. Outlier sales happen in spite of logical stratification demonstrated by market evidence. Growth crazed buyers simply don’t share well with others.